Jobs for Robots?

05/12/2025

Decline of U.S. Manufacturing

By any metric, U.S. manufacturing continues to decline. Visual Capitalist says, “Overall, the number of U.S. manufacturing firms has shrunk by 14% over 20 years, with 50% or higher drops in the apparel and textile mills sectors.

Amid factory closures across nearly all manufacturing sectors, employment has dropped to 13 million workers as of January 2023, down from its 1979 peak of 19.5 million workers. Today, manufacturing jobs make up roughly 10% of the U.S. private sector workforce.”

According to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “In the 40 years since manufacturing employment peaked, the industry has struggled to regain the prominence it once had. Notable job losses occurred within durable goods manufacturing, especially fabricated metals and machinery, and computer and electrical products. Within nondurable goods manufacturing, apparel and textile industries suffered dramatic jobs losses, while food manufacturing was the only component industry to add jobs. Although there were more recessions (seven) during the 40 years prior to peak employment, compared with the number (five) after the peak, manufacturing employment failed to fully recover from any of the cyclical losses after June 1979 and resulted in a 34-percent net loss over the 40 years following the peak.”

Manufacturers Have a Dilemma

To compete in the global marketplace, having a skilled workforce is essential. Skilled workers will generate greater productivity by using their knowledge to overcome problems that would cause slowdowns or work stoppages with a less skilled workforce. Precision and speed remain constant, which increases output and return on (worker) investment.

A skilled workforce will also foster innovation and allow rapid adaptation to changing dynamics.

Companies face the dilemma of having an expensive skilled workforce. The top ten skilled forces, rated by country, have hourly wages between $12.50 and $39.00.

Many factors other than wages impact the cost of manufacturing, including energy, raw materials, rent, compliance, taxes, volume, unit complexity, tooling, maintenance, etc. However, many manufacturers focus on wages because, in part, they feel that depending on where their manufacturing is located, they have more control over labor costs than other factors, such as raw materials.

Even if a company can move manufacturing to a country with a lower average wage, it will encounter the second part of the dilemma. The pool of skilled labor is insufficient. Unskilled labor will be less productive, much less efficient in using raw materials, and unable to problem-solve.

Jobs for Robots

There is no such thing as cheap, skilled labor. To bring manufacturing back to the U.S., consumers will have to accept paying more for products that used to be cheap and plentiful. This is unrealistic. Manufacturers, if they are to succeed in bringing jobs back to the U.S., will need to find a way to produce their products for less. With many fixed costs (raw materials, energy, etc.), they will increasingly turn to robotics.

Writing in Wired, Russell Brandom believes that 2025 Is the Year of the Humanoid Robot Factory Worker. These robot workers will not only be on the factory floor but will also directly engage with consumers. A 2024 Goldman Sachs report estimates that humanoid robots will represent a $38 billion market by 2035—more than six times what the firm projected a year earlier.

Until recently, making multipurpose humanoid robots that were not selectively specialized for specific tasks has been difficult. Jonathan Hurst, cofounder and chief robot officer at Agility Robotics, says, “You can imagine a grocery or tractor supply store has one, and that robot can be in the backroom depalletizing, cleaning, stocking shelves, checking inventory, just a huge range of things.”

Robots have already infiltrated repetitive manufacturing. With the maturation of AI and large language training programs, more and more non-repetitive manufacturing will be handled over to robots.

Not Your Grandfather’s Manufacturing

If we are successful in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., it won’t look anything like your grandfather’s shop floor. Instead of crowded production lines, there will be a mechanical workforce that doesn’t take breaks, vacations, sick days, or need health care—just a few highly skilled technicians to keep it all running.

How Can ASN Help?

Change is inevitable. How fast it occurs and what it will look like is unclear. Although we don’t have a crystal ball, our professionals at ASN are fully aware of trends and technologies, and are always looking for ways to support and advise our clients. If you would like to talk about anything regarding your company’s path forward, we would love to talk. Just give us a call.