Will There Be a Winter Thaw?

For the last year, the shadow of economic uncertainty and been hanging over the workplace, especially when it came to hiring. With on and off again tariffs, political inertia, and all the other issues and news stories cropping up every day, making plans has been difficult for many businesses. Experts and business leaders have been preparing for an economic downturn since May, but as of yet, it hasn't happened.

Resilience

Throughout all this turmoil, economic indicators, for many sectors, have stayed strong. In fact, a the recent annual employer survey by ZipRecruiter shows that many companies are looking to grow in 2026. And of course, growth equals job.

As reported by Bruce Crumley in a recent article, "ZipRecruiter’s poll of more than 1,500 hiring professionals indicate their months-long hesitancy to expand headcounts is now fading, with 63 percent of respondents saying they plan on hiring within the next year. And in good news for recent college graduates who’ve found themselves all but locked out of the job market, more than 31 percent of participating HR officials said they’d resume filling entry-level positions whose tasks many companies are automating with AI."

Is Hiring Stagnation Fading Away?

In the last year, much has been written about "the great freeze." In fact, as recently as last month, both Business Insider and The Economic Times have written a low-fire, low-hire job market. Writing in Business Insider, Madison Hoff explains that the it won't be a quick thaw "However, the current macroeconomic conditions are continuing to add delays and additional layers that are going to continue to keep hiring and movement in general at this slower pace for the next couple of months."

Sectors

Some sectors will see more growth than others. Healthcare, renewable energy and technology, in particular, will show healthy growth. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently published the following:

Stronger U.S. Growth

According to Reuters, economists see stronger U.S. growth. Although tariffs will continue to be a drag on the economy, they will be offset by other factors. As Howard Schneider writes in Reuters, "... the latest version of NABE's (National Association for Business Economics) quarterly survey, released on Monday as part of the group's annual meeting, upgraded the more pessimistic views about the U.S. outlook offered earlier in the year when concerns about the economic blow from tariffs and the risks of a broader trade war were at their peak.

The median projection was for the economy to grow 1.8% in 2025, around most estimates of underlying potential, compared to 1.3% projected in the June survey.

Inflation as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was seen ending the year at 3%, down slightly from the 3.1% projected as of June. But it was also seen declining only to 2.5% in 2026, compared to 2.3% in the June survey, a slower return towards the Fed's 2% target."

Economists surveyed by NABE see job growth averaging 29,000 per month for the rest of the year, gradually increasing to around 75,000 per month in 2026.

Business Investment

Reuters explains "One of the factors promoting anticipated economic growth is a surge of capital towards computing capacity and artificial intelligence. Anticipated investment "improved sharply" the latest survey found, now expected to grow 3.8% this year versus 1.6% as of June, and continue expanding at a 1.7% rate next year versus 0.9% anticipated in June."

HOW CAN ASN HELP?

The job market and overall economic situation in the U.S. is more complicated than ever. However, it is our job to simplify these uncertainties for you, so you can focus on growing your business. If you would like to talk to one of our professionals regarding planning for the year ahead, we would love to have that conversation. Just give us a call.