AI Taketh and AI Giveth Away

What Was Your First Job?

Here is a question frequently asked around the office water cooler, or whatever serves the same purpose today. It’s also often used as an icebreaker or a way to get to know someone.

What was your first job? This question transcends age, social status, and ethnicity. Most everyone enjoys a brief stroll down memory lane, recounting how little they were paid, how hard the job was, or the interesting people they met.

When we think back to our first job, we often see the start of the path that led us to our current position—the first tentative steps up the ladder that launched our career. However, the widespread adoption of Generative AI (GAI) and the changes it is causing are disrupting this traditional career path.

The Career Ladder Is Getting Shorter

A New York Times (NYT) article states, “These changes… (introduction of GAI)  … coincide with a shift appearing in the latest employment numbers. The unemployment rate for college grads has risen 30 percent since September 2022, compared with about 18 percent for all workers.

New workers are particularly vulnerable to any disruptions to the traditional career model. Again, according to the NYT article, “…getting a late start can slow down workers’ careers for decades. The Center for American Progress found that young adults who experience six months of unemployment at age 22 can expect to earn approximately $22,000 less over the next decade.”

AI Taketh and AI Giveth Away

According to a World Economic Forum report, “Extrapolating from the predictions shared by Future of Jobs Survey respondents, on current trends over the 2025 to 2030 period, job creation and destruction due to structural labor-market transformation will amount to 22% of today’s total jobs. This is expected to entail the creation of new jobs equivalent to 14% of today’s total employment, amounting to 170 million jobs. However, this growth is expected to be offset by the displacement of the equivalent of 8% (or 92 million) of current jobs, resulting in net growth of 7% of total employment, or 78 million jobs. On average, workers can expect that two-fifths (39%) of their existing skill sets will be transformed or become outdated over the 2025-2030 period.”

Eventually, A.I. will create plenty of jobs. The World Economic Forum predicts that number could be as high as 78 million more jobs, even after predicted job losses.Amid factory closures across nearly all manufacturing sectors, employment has dropped to 13 million workers as of January 2023, down from its 1979 peak of 19.5 million workers. Today, manufacturing jobs make up roughly 10% of the U.S. private sector workforce.”

 According to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “In the 40 years since manufacturing employment peaked, the industry has struggled to regain the prominence it once had. Notable job losses occurred within durable goods manufacturing, especially fabricated metals and machinery, and computer and electrical products. Within nondurable goods manufacturing, apparel and textile industries suffered dramatic jobs losses, while food manufacturing was the only component industry to add jobs. Although there were more recessions (seven) during the 40 years prior to peak employment, compared with the number (five) after the peak, manufacturing employment failed to fully recover from any of the cyclical losses after June 1979 and resulted in a 34-percent net loss over the 40 years following the peak.”

Jobs AI Is Expected to Create

“Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing the job market, creating new types of jobs and enhancing existing ones. As AI continues to develop and evolve, it is important to understand how it is impacting the job market, the types of new jobs that are emerging, and the potential impact on unemployment rates and the economy as a whole.

As explained in the Linkedin Future of Work Report, November 2023, “From December 2022 to September 2023, views for AI and AI-related jobs — those jobs that have AI or Machine Learning in their titles and/or require AI Skills — increased by 12% across seven major economies (Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, India, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US)). Applications to AI and AI-related job postings have seen similar growth, up 11% globally during the same time period. Interest is particularly high in the US, where views and applications of AI jobs increased by 21% and 19%, respectively, since December 2022.”

According to another report by McKinsey & Company, AI is expected to create 20-50 million new jobs globally by 2030. These new jobs will be in a range of industries, including healthcare, manufacturing, and finance. Some of the new job roles that are emerging as a result of AI include:

• AI Trainers and Teachers: These are individuals who are responsible for training and teaching AI systems. They ensure that AI algorithms are accurate and effective, and they also develop new AI applications and systems.
• Data Analysts and Scientists: With the increase in data generated by AI systems, there is a growing demand for individuals who can analyse and interpret this data. Data analysts and scientists use AI tools to analyse data and identify patterns and insights that can help businesses make better decisions.
• Human-Machine Teaming Managers: As AI becomes more integrated into the workplace, there is a growing need for individuals who can manage the interaction between humans and machines. Human-machine teaming managers ensure that AI systems work effectively with human workers, enhancing productivity and efficiency.

AI Ethics and Policy Specialists: As AI becomes more prevalent, there is a growing need for individuals who can address the ethical and policy implications of AI. AI ethics and policy specialists ensure that AI systems are developed and used in a responsible and ethical manner.

Skills Gap

As with the advent of industrialization and the information age, the rapid adoption of GAI has created a skills gap. Jobs are being created faster than workers can be trained to do them. As reported in the World Economic Forum report, “While global job numbers are projected to grow by 2030, existing and emerging skills differences between growing and declining roles could exacerbate existing skills gaps. The most prominent skills differentiating growing from declining jobs are anticipated to comprise resilience, flexibility and agility; resource management and operations; quality control; programming and technological literacy.

Given these evolving skill demands, the scale of workforce upskilling and reskilling expected to be needed remains significant: if the world’s workforce was made up of 100 people, 59 would need training by 2030. Of these, employers foresee that 29 could be upskilled in their current roles and 19 could be upskilled and redeployed elsewhere within their organization. However, 11 would be unlikely to receive the reskilling or upkskilling needed, leaving their employment prospects increasingly at risk.

Skill gaps are categorically considered the biggest barrier to business transformation by Future of Jobs Survey respondents, with 63% of employers identifying them as a major barrier over the 2025- 2030 period. Accordingly, 85% of employers surveyed plan to prioritize upskilling their workforce, with 70% of employers expecting to hire staff with new skills, 40% planning to reduce staff as their skills become less relevant, and 50% planning to transition staff from declining to growing roles.”

Riding The Wave

Every source tells us that GAI will be perhaps the greatest disruptor in the history of work. This disruption is made worse by its speed. Previous structural work changes have occurred over a generation or two, with tremendous overlap of needed skills.

GAI is different. With the creation of Large Language Models (LLM), the speed with which we have adopted AI is astounding.

As Mustafa Suleyman writes in his book The Coming Wave, “AI really isn’t ‘emerging’ anymore. It’s in the products, services, and devices you use every day. Across all areas of life, a raft of applications rely on techniques that a decade ago were impossible… AI systems run retail warehouses, suggest how to write emails or what songs you might like, detect fraud, write stories, diagnose rare conditions, and stimulate the impact of climate change. They feature in shops, schools, hospitals, offices, courts, and homes. You already interact many times a day with AI.”

How Can ASN Help?

Think of us as your AI Surfing Instructor. There is no avoiding the oncoming wave. The most important thing for us to do is to learn as much as we can about it and be ready to hitch a ride when it arrives.

Our professionals at ASN are tracking the wave of AI and preparing for its changes. We would love to talk with you about how you can prepare for AI and its impact on your business. Just give us a call.